BLOG INI TIDAK DAPAT DIKEMASKINI BERMULA 1 DICEMBER 2009 SEHINGGA 8 DECEMBER 2009
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Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Monday, November 30, 2009
AMARAN ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA Dikeluarkan pada pukul 11.30 malam 30 Nov 2009
AMARAN KATEGORI PERTAMA
AMARAN ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA
Dikeluarkan pada pukul 11.30 malam 30 Nov 2009
SEKSYEN A : AMARAN ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA (KATEGORI PERTAMA)
Angin kencang Timur Laut dengan kelajuan 40-50 kmsj dengan ombak mencapai ketinggian sehingga 3.5 meter yang berlaku di perairan Condore dan Samui dijangka berterusan sehingga Selasa, 1 Disember 2009.
Keadaan angin kencang dan laut bergelora ini adalah berbahaya kepada bot-bot kecil, rekreasi laut dan sukan laut.
SEKSYEN B : NASIHAT ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA (KATEGORI PERTAMA)
Angin kencang Timur Laut dengan kelajuan 40-50 kmsj dengan ombak mencapai ketinggian sehingga 3.5 meter yang dijangka berlaku di perairan Condore dan Samui (Kelantan dan Terengganu) bermula pada Jumaat, 4 Disember 2009 sehingga Ahad, 6 Disember 2009.
Selain daripada itu, kawasan pantai di Pantai Timur Semenanjung Malaysia (Kelantan dan Terengganu) terdedah kepada kejadian kenaikan paras air laut. Keadaan ini dijangka bermula pada 4 Disember 2009 sehingga 6 Disember 2009.
Keadaan angin kencang dan laut bergelora ini adalah berbahaya kepada bot-bot kecil, rekreasi laut dan sukan laut.
SEKSYEN C : AMARAN RIBUT PETIR - Kemaskini
Aktiviti ribut petir yang berlaku di perairan Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu, Bunguran, Condore dan Sarawak (Kuching dan Mukah) dijangka berterusan sehingga pagi, Selasa, 1 Disember 2009.
Keadaan ini boleh menyebabkan angin kencang sehingga 40 kmsj dan laut bergelora dengan ombak boleh mencapai ketinggian 2.5 meter dan berbahaya kepada bot-bot kecil.
FIRST CATEGORY WARNING
WARNING ON STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
Dikemaskini pada 30 Nov 2009, jam 11.30 malam
SECTION A : WARNING ON STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS (FIRST CATEGORY)
Strong Northeasterly winds of 40-50 kmph with waves up to 3.5 metres over the waters off Condore and Samui are expected to continue until Tuesday, 1 December 2009.
This condition of strong winds and rough seas is dangerous to small crafts, recreational sea activities and sea sports.
SECTION B : ADVISORY ON STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS (FIRST CATEGORY)
Strong Northeasterly winds of 40-50 kmph with waves up to 3.5 metres are expected to occur over the waters off Condore and Samui (Kelantan and Terengganu) beginning from Friday, 4 December 2009 until Sunday, 6 December 2009.
In addition, the coastal areas of East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia (Kelantan and Terengganu) are vulnerable to sea level rise. This condition is expected to begin on 4 December 2009 until 6 December 2009.
This condition of strong winds and rough seas is dangerous to small crafts, recreational sea activities and sea sports.
SECTION C : THUNDERSTORMS WARNING - Update
Thunderstorm activities over waters off Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu, Bunguran, Condore and Sarawak (Kuching and Mukah) are expected to persist until morning, Tuesday, 1 December 2009.
This condition can cause strong wind up to 40 km/h and rough seas up to 2.5 metres and dangerous to small boats.
Updated on 30 Nov 2009, 11.30 pm
Oleh: Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia
(Bhg. Kajicuaca Lautan dan Oseanografi) Kementerian Sains, Teknologi dan Inovasi
Amaran JMM.RML07/701/03/Jld. 27 (96)
NASIHAT HUJAN LEBAT (PERINGKAT KUNING) Dikeluarkan pada: 6.15 petang 30/11/2009
NASIHAT HUJAN LEBAT
(PERINGKAT KUNING)
Dikeluarkan pada: 6.15 petang 30/11/2009
Kemaskini pada: 6.15 petang 30/11/2009
Hujan sekejap-sekejap kadangkala lebat dari semasa ke semasa dijangka turun di Terengganu (Daerah Besut, Setiu, Kuala Terengganu, Hulu Terengganu, Marang, Dungun dan Kemaman), Pahang (Daerah Kuantan, Pekan dan Rompin) dan Johor (Daerah Mersing) sehingga Rabu 2 Disember 2009.
Keadaan ini boleh menyebabkan banjir di kawasan-kawasan yang berkedudukan rendah berdekatan tebing-tebing sungai.
HEAVY RAIN ADVISORY
(YELLOW STAGE)
Issued at : 6.15 pm 30/11/2009
Updated at : 6.15 pm 30/11/2009
Intermittent rain occasionally heavy is expected to occur from time to time over Terengganu (Besut, Setiu, Kuala Terengganu, Hulu Terengganu, Marang, Dungun and Kemaman Districts), Pahang (Kuantan, Pekan and Rompin Districts) and Johore (Mersing District) until Wednesday 2 December 2009.
This condition may cause floods in low-lying areas near the river banks.
Issued by
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation
30/11/2009
AMARAN KATEGORI PERTAMA
AMARAN ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA
Dikeluarkan pada pukul 4.45 petang 30 Nov 2009
SEKSYEN A : AMARAN ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA (KATEGORI PERTAMA)- Kemaskini
Angin kencang Timur Laut dengan kelajuan 40-50 kmsj dengan ombak mencapai ketinggian sehingga 3.5 meter yang berlaku di perairan Condore dan Samui dijangka berterusan sehingga Selasa, 1 Disember 2009.
Keadaan angin kencang dan laut bergelora ini adalah berbahaya kepada bot-bot kecil, rekreasi laut dan sukan laut.
SEKSYEN B : NASIHAT ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA (KATEGORI PERTAMA)
Angin kencang Timur Laut dengan kelajuan 40-50 kmsj dengan ombak mencapai ketinggian sehingga 3.5 meter yang dijangka berlaku di perairan Condore dan Samui (Kelantan dan Terengganu) bermula pada Jumaat, 4 Disember 2009 sehingga Ahad, 6 Disember 2009.
Selain daripada itu, kawasan pantai di Pantai Timur Semenanjung Malaysia (Kelantan dan Terengganu) terdedah kepada kejadian kenaikan paras air laut. Keadaan ini dijangka bermula pada 4 Disember 2009 sehingga 6 Disember 2009.
Keadaan angin kencang dan laut bergelora ini adalah berbahaya kepada bot-bot kecil, rekreasi laut dan sukan laut.
SEKSYEN C : AMARAN RIBUT PETIR - Kemaskini
Aktiviti ribut petir yang berlaku di perairan Johor Timur, Pahang, Terengganu, Bunguran, Condore, Reef North dan Layang-Layang dijangka berterusan sehingga malam, Isnin, 30 November 2009.
Keadaan ini boleh menyebabkan angin kencang sehingga 40 kmsj dan laut bergelora dengan ombak boleh mencapai ketinggian 2.5 meter dan berbahaya kepada bot-bot kecil.
FIRST CATEGORY WARNING
WARNING ON STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
Dikemaskini pada 30 Nov 2009, jam 4.40 petang
SECTION A : WARNING ON STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS (FIRST CATEGORY)- Update
Strong Northeasterly winds of 40-50 kmph with waves up to 3.5 metres over the waters off Condore and Samui are expected to continue until Tuesday, 1 December 2009.
This condition of strong winds and rough seas is dangerous to small crafts, recreational sea activities and sea sports.
SECTION B : ADVISORY ON STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS (FIRST CATEGORY)
Strong Northeasterly winds of 40-50 kmph with waves up to 3.5 metres are expected to occur over the waters off Condore and Samui (Kelantan and Terengganu) beginning from Friday, 4 December 2009 until Sunday, 6 December 2009.
In addition, the coastal areas of East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia (Kelantan and Terengganu) are vulnerable to sea level rise. This condition is expected to begin on 4 December 2009 until 6 December 2009.
This condition of strong winds and rough seas is dangerous to small crafts, recreational sea activities and sea sports.
SECTION C : THUNDERSTORMS WARNING - Update
Thunderstorm activities over waters off East Johore, Pahang, Terengganu, Bunguran, Condore, Reef North and Layang-Layang are expected to persist until evening, Monday, 30 November 2009.
This condition can cause strong wind up to 40 km/h and rough seas up to 2.5 metres and dangerous to small boats.
Updated on 30 Nov 2009, 4.40 pm
Oleh: Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia
(Bhg. Kajicuaca Lautan dan Oseanografi) Kementerian Sains, Teknologi dan Inovasi
Amaran JMM.RML07/701/03/Jld. 27 (95)
AMARAN ANGIN KENCANG DAN KEDUDUKAN AWAN HUJAN TERKINI JAM 1.30 PETANG 30 N0V 2009
GEMA RADAR JAM 1.30 PETANG 30NOV2009
IMEJ SATELITE JAM 1.10 PETANG 30NOV2009
AMARAN KATEGORI PERTAMA
AMARAN ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA
Dikeluarkan pada pukul 12.20 petang 30 Nov 2009
SEKSYEN A : AMARAN ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA (KATEGORI PERTAMA)- Kemaskini
Angin kencang Timur Laut dengan kelajuan 40-50 kmsj dengan ombak mencapai ketinggian sehingga 3.5 meter yang berlaku di perairan Condore dan Samui dijangka berterusan sehingga Selasa, 1 Disember 2009.
Keadaan angin kencang dan laut bergelora ini adalah berbahaya kepada bot-bot kecil, rekreasi laut dan sukan laut.
SEKSYEN B : NASIHAT ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA (KATEGORI PERTAMA)
Angin kencang Timur Laut dengan kelajuan 40-50 kmsj dengan ombak mencapai ketinggian sehingga 3.5 meter yang dijangka berlaku di perairan Condore dan Samui (Kelantan dan Terengganu) bermula pada Jumaat, 4 Disember 2009 sehingga Ahad, 6 Disember 2009.
Selain daripada itu, kawasan pantai di Pantai Timur Semenanjung Malaysia (Kelantan dan Terengganu) terdedah kepada kejadian kenaikan paras air laut. Keadaan ini dijangka bermula pada 4 Disember 2009 sehingga 6 Disember 2009.
Keadaan angin kencang dan laut bergelora ini adalah berbahaya kepada bot-bot kecil, rekreasi laut dan sukan laut.
SEKSYEN C : AMARAN RIBUT PETIR - Kemaskini
Aktiviti ribut petir yang berlaku di perairan Johor Barat, Johor Timur, Pahang, Terengganu, Bunguran, Condore dan Reef North dijangka berterusan sehingga malam, Isnin, 30 November 2009.
Keadaan ini boleh menyebabkan angin kencang sehingga 40 kmsj dan laut bergelora dengan ombak boleh mencapai ketinggian 2.5 meter dan berbahaya kepada bot-bot kecil.
IMEJ SATELITE JAM 1.10 PETANG 30NOV2009
AMARAN KATEGORI PERTAMA
AMARAN ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA
Dikeluarkan pada pukul 12.20 petang 30 Nov 2009
SEKSYEN A : AMARAN ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA (KATEGORI PERTAMA)- Kemaskini
Angin kencang Timur Laut dengan kelajuan 40-50 kmsj dengan ombak mencapai ketinggian sehingga 3.5 meter yang berlaku di perairan Condore dan Samui dijangka berterusan sehingga Selasa, 1 Disember 2009.
Keadaan angin kencang dan laut bergelora ini adalah berbahaya kepada bot-bot kecil, rekreasi laut dan sukan laut.
SEKSYEN B : NASIHAT ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA (KATEGORI PERTAMA)
Angin kencang Timur Laut dengan kelajuan 40-50 kmsj dengan ombak mencapai ketinggian sehingga 3.5 meter yang dijangka berlaku di perairan Condore dan Samui (Kelantan dan Terengganu) bermula pada Jumaat, 4 Disember 2009 sehingga Ahad, 6 Disember 2009.
Selain daripada itu, kawasan pantai di Pantai Timur Semenanjung Malaysia (Kelantan dan Terengganu) terdedah kepada kejadian kenaikan paras air laut. Keadaan ini dijangka bermula pada 4 Disember 2009 sehingga 6 Disember 2009.
Keadaan angin kencang dan laut bergelora ini adalah berbahaya kepada bot-bot kecil, rekreasi laut dan sukan laut.
SEKSYEN C : AMARAN RIBUT PETIR - Kemaskini
Aktiviti ribut petir yang berlaku di perairan Johor Barat, Johor Timur, Pahang, Terengganu, Bunguran, Condore dan Reef North dijangka berterusan sehingga malam, Isnin, 30 November 2009.
Keadaan ini boleh menyebabkan angin kencang sehingga 40 kmsj dan laut bergelora dengan ombak boleh mencapai ketinggian 2.5 meter dan berbahaya kepada bot-bot kecil.
AMARAN KATEGORI PERTAMA AMARAN ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA Dikeluarkan pada pukul 6.00 pagi 30 Nov 2009
AMARAN KATEGORI PERTAMA
AMARAN ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA
Dikeluarkan pada pukul 6.00 pagi 30 Nov 2009
SEKSYEN A : AMARAN ANGIN KENCANG DAN LAUT BERGELORA (KATEGORI PERTAMA)- Kemaskini
Angin kencang Timur Laut dengan kelajuan 40-50 kmsj dengan ombak mencapai ketinggian sehingga 3.5 meter yang berlaku di perairan Condore dan Samui dijangka berterusan sehingga Selasa, 1 Disember 2009.
Keadaan angin kencang dan laut bergelora ini adalah berbahaya kepada bot-bot kecil, rekreasi laut dan sukan laut.
SEKSYEN B : AMARAN RIBUT PETIR - Kemaskini
Aktiviti ribut petir yang berlaku di perairan Perak, Selangor, Terengganu, Pahang, Johor Timur, Bunguran dan Sarawak (Mukah, Bintulu dan Miri) dijangka berterusan sehingga tengah hari, Isnin, 30 November 2009.
Keadaan ini boleh menyebabkan angin kencang sehingga 40 kmsj dan laut bergelora dengan ombak boleh mencapai ketinggian 2.5 meter dan berbahaya kepada bot-bot kecil.
Dikemaskini pada 30 Nov 2009, jam 6.10 pagi
FIRST CATEGORY WARNING
WARNING ON STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
SECTION A : WARNING ON STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS (FIRST CATEGORY)- Update
Strong Northeasterly winds of 40-50 kmph with waves up to 3.5 metres over the waters off Condore and Samui are expected to continue until Tuesday, 1 December 2009.
This condition of strong winds and rough seas is dangerous to small crafts, recreational sea activities and sea sports.
SECTION B : THUNDERSTORMS WARNING - Updated
Thunderstorm activities over waters off Perak, Selangor, Terengganu, Pahang, East Johore, Bunguran and Sarawak (Mukah, Bintulu and Miri) are expected to persist until noon, Monday, 30 November 2009.
This condition can cause strong wind up to 40 km/h and rough seas up to 2.5 metres and dangerous to small boats.
Updated on 30 Nov 2009, 6.10 am
Oleh: Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia
(Bhg. Kajicuaca Lautan dan Oseanografi) Kementerian Sains, Teknologi dan Inovasi
GAMBAR SATELITE 30112009 JAM 0730 PAGI
IMEJ RADAR JAM 0840 PAGI 30112009
NASIHAT HUJAN LEBAT
(PERINGKAT KUNING)
Dikeluarkan pada: 8.45 pagi 30/11/2009
Kemaskini pada: 8.45 pagi 30/11/2009
Hujan sekejap-sekejap kadangkala lebat dari semasa ke semasa dijangka turun di, Terengganu (Daerah Kemaman), Pahang (Daerah Kuantan, Pekan dan Rompin) dan Johor (Daerah Mersing dan Kota Tinggi) sehingga Rabu 2 Disember 2009.
Keadaan ini boleh menyebabkan banjir di kawasan-kawasan yang berkedudukan rendah berdekatan tebing-tebing sungai.
HEAVY RAIN ADVISORY
(YELLOW STAGE)
Issued at : 8.45 am 30/11/2009
Updated at : 8.45 am 30/11/2009
Intermittent rain occasionally heavy is expected to occur from time to time over Terengganu (Kemaman District), Pahang (Kuantan, Pekan and Rompin Districts) and Johore (Mersing and Kota Tinggi Districts) until Wednesday 2 December 2009.
This condition may cause floods in low-lying areas near the river banks.
Issued by
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation
30/11/2009
EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION Issued by Malaysian Meteorological Department Ministry of Science, Technology And Innovation at 4.38 am 30/11/2009
REVISION OF EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION
Issued by Malaysian Meteorological Department
Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation
at 4.38 am 30/11/2009
This is a revision of the earthquake information issued at 4.23 am.
A moderate earthquake has occurred with these revised parameters:
Time of Occurrence : 4.09 am on 30 November 2009
Coordinates : 5.5 North 126.7 East
Location : Mindanao Philippine Islands,201km Southeast of Davao,Philippine. 938km East of Lahad Datu, Sabah.
Magnitude : 5.5 on Richter scale
Assessment
No tsunami threat
Friday, November 27, 2009
What is Global Warming?
What is Global Warming?
Global warmth begins with sunlight. When light from the Sun reaches the Earth, roughly 30 percent of it is reflected back into space by clouds, atmospheric particles, reflective ground surfaces, and even ocean surf. The remaining 70 percent of the light is absorbed by the land, air, and oceans, heating our planet’s surface and atmosphere and making life on Earth possible. Solar energy does not stay bound up in Earth’s environment forever. Instead, as the rocks, the air, and the sea warm, they emit thermal radiation, or infrared heat. Much of this thermal radiation travels directly out to space, allowing Earth to cool.
Some of this outgoing radiation, however, is re-absorbed by water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases in the atmosphere (called greenhouse gases because of their heat-trapping capacity) and is then re-radiated back toward the Earth’s surface. On the whole, this re-absorption process is good. If there were no greenhouse gases or clouds in the atmosphere, the Earth’s average surface temperature would be a very chilly -18°C (0°F) instead of the comfortable 15°C (59°F) that it is today.
What has scientists concerned now is that over the past 250 years humans have been artificially raising the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at an ever-increasing rate. By 2004, humans were pumping out over 8 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year. Some of it was absorbed by “sinks” like forests or the ocean, and the rest accumulated in the atmosphere. We produce millions of pounds of methane by allowing our trash to decompose in landfills and by breeding large herds of methane-belching cattle. Nitrogen-based fertilizers and other soil management practices lead to the release of nitrous oxide into the atmosphere.
Once these greenhouse gases get into the atmosphere, they stay there for decades or longer. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), since the industrial revolution began in about 1750, carbon dioxide levels have increased 35 percent and methane levels have increased 148 percent. Paleoclimate readings taken from ice cores and fossil records show that these gases, two of the most abundant greenhouse gases, are at their highest levels in at least the past 650,000 years. Scientists have very high confidence (a phrase the IPCC translates to “greater than 90 percent certainty”) that the increased concentrations of greenhouse gases have made it more difficult for thermal radiation to leave the Earth, and as a result, Earth has warmed.
Evidence for Global Warming
Recent observations of warming support the theory that greenhouse gases are warming the world. Over the last century, the planet has experienced the largest increase in surface temperature in 1,300 years. The average surface temperature of the Earth rose 0.6 to 0.9 degrees Celsius (1.08°F to 1.62°F) between 1906 and 2006, and the rate of temperature increase nearly doubled in the last 50 years. Worldwide measurements of sea level show a rise of about 0.17 meters (0.56 feet) during the twentieth century. The world’s glaciers have steadily receded, and Arctic sea ice extent has steadily shrunk by 2.7 percent per decade since 1978.
ven if greenhouse gas concentrations stabilized today, the planet would continue to warm by about 0.6°C over the next century because it takes years for Earth to fully react to increases in greenhouse gases. As Earth has warmed, much of the excess energy has gone into heating the upper layers of the ocean. Scientists suspect that currents have transported some of this excess heat from surface waters down deep, removing it from the surface of our planet. Once the lower layers of the ocean have warmed, the excess heat in the upper layers will no longer be drawn down, and Earth will warm about 0.6°C (1° F).
But how do scientists know global warming is caused by humans and that the observed warming isn’t a natural variation in Earth’s climate? Scientists use three closely connected methods to understand changes in Earth’s climate. They look at records of Earth’s past climates to see how and why climate changed in the past, they build computer models that allow them to see how the climate works, and they closely monitor Earth’s current vital signs with an array of instruments ranging from space-based satellites to deep sea thermometers. Records of past climate change reveal the natural events—such as volcanic eruptions and solar activity—that influenced climate throughout Earth’s history. Today, scientists monitor those same natural events as well as human-released greenhouse gases and use computer models to determine how each influences Earth’s climate.
Reconstructing Past Climate Change
Like detectives at a crime scene, scientists reconstruct past climate changes by looking for evidence left in things like glacial ice, ocean sediments, rocks, and trees. For example, glacial ice traps tiny samples of Earth’s atmosphere, giving scientists a record of greenhouse gases that stretches back more than 650,000 years, and the chemical make-up of the ice provides clues to the average global temperature. From these and other records, scientists have built a record of Earth’s past climates, or “paleoclimates.” Paleoclimatology allowed scientists to show that climate changes in the past have been triggered by variations in Earth’s orbit, solar variation, volcanic eruptions, and greenhouse gases.
Building a Climate Model
Next, to understand how sunlight, air, water, and land come together to create Earth’s climate, scientists build climate models—computer simulations of the climate system. Climate models include the fundamental laws of physics—conservation of energy, mass, and momentum—as well as dozens of factors that influence Earth’s climate. Though the models are complicated, rigorous tests with real-world data hone them into robust tools that allow scientists to experiment with the climate in a way not otherwise possible. For example, when scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA’s division spearheading climate modeling efforts, put measurements of volcanic particles from Mount Pinatubo’s 1991 eruption into their climate models well after the event, the models reported that Earth would have cooled by around 0.5°C a year or so later. The prediction matched cooling that had been observed around the globe after the eruption.
As the models reconstruct events that match the climate record, researchers gain confidence that the models are accurately duplicating the complex interactions that drive Earth’s climate. Scientists then experiment with the models to gain insight into what is driving climate change. By experimenting with the models—removing greenhouse gases emitted by the burning of fossil fuels or changing the intensity of the Sun to see how each influences the climate— scientists can use the models to explain Earth’s current climate and predict its future climate. So far, the only way scientists can get the models to match the rise in temperature seen over the past century is to include the greenhouse gases that humans have put into the atmosphere. This means that, according to the models, humans are responsible for most of the warming observed during the second half of the twentieth century.
But why do scientists trust results from climate models when models seem to have so much trouble forecasting the weather? It turns out that trends are easier to predict than specific events. Weather is a short-term, small-scale set of measurements of environmental conditions, while climate is the average of those conditions over a large area for a long time. The difference between predicting weather and climate is similar to the difference between predicting when a particular person will die versus calculating the average life span of an entire population. Given the large number of variables that influence conditions in Earth’s lower atmosphere, and given that chaos also plays a larger role on shorter and smaller scales of time and space, weather is much harder to predict than the averages that make up climate.
However, the longer the time scale, the harder it becomes to predict climate. Scientists understand how certain processes that drive Earth’s climate work now, and so they can accurately predict how events like Pinatubo’s eruption will cool the globe’s average temperature. But they don’t understand how every aspect of the climate system will change as the planet warms. Feedback loops—in which change in one part of the climate system produces change in another part—make climate harder to forecast as scientists look farther into the future. For example, what will happen to clouds as Earth warms? Will high-flying, heat-absorbing clouds that would cause additional heating become more frequent than dense, sunlight-blocking clouds? Will changes be regional or global, and how will they affect global climate? As of now, scientists can’t answer these questions, and the uncertainties mean that global climate models provide a range of predictions instead of a highly detailed forecast
Observing Global Warming
Climate models and paleoclimate information tell scientists what kinds of symptoms to look for when diagnosing global warming. Ocean temperatures and acidity should rise as the oceans soak up more heat and carbon dioxide. Global temperatures are predicted to increase, with the largest temperature increases over land and at the poles. Glaciers and sea ice will melt and sea levels will rise. Like a patient in a hospital, Earth is closely monitored for these symptoms by a fleet of satellites and surface instruments. NASA satellites record a host of vital signs including atmospheric aerosols (particles from things like factories, fires, or erupting volcanoes), atmospheric gases, energy from Earth’s surface and the Sun, ocean surface temperatures, global sea levels, the extent of ice sheets, glaciers and sea ice, plant growth, rainfall, cloud structure, and more. On the ground, networks of weather stations maintain temperature and rainfall records, and buoys measure deep ocean temperatures.
Along with paleoclimate data, these sources reveal that the planet has been warming for at least the last 400 years, and possibly the last 1000 years. As of now, warming after 1950 cannot be explained without accounting for greenhouse gases; natural influences such as volcanic eruptions or changes in the Sun’s output cannot account for the observed temperatures changes.
Occasional violent volcanic eruptions, such as Mt. Pinatubo, pump gases like sulfur dioxide and aerosols high into the atmosphere where they can linger for more than a year, reflecting sunlight and shading Earth’s surface. The cooling influence of this aerosol “shade” is greater than the warming influence of the volcanoes’ greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore such eruptions cannot account for the recent warming trend.
An increase in solar output also falls short of explaining recent warming. NASA satellites have been measuring the Sun’s output since 1978, and while the Sun’s activity has varied a little, the observed changes were not large enough to account for the warming recorded during the same period. Climate simulations of global temperature changes based only on solar variability and volcanic aerosols since 1750—omitting greenhouse gases— are able to fit the record of global temperatures only up until about 1950.
he only viable explanation for warming after 1950 is an increase in greenhouse gases. It is well established theoretically why carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases should heat the planet, and observations show that they have.
Predicting Future Warming
As the world consumes ever more fossil fuel energy, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise, and Earth’s average surface temperature will rise with them. Based on plausible emission scenarios, the IPCC estimates that average surface temperatures could rise between 2°C and 6°C by the end of the 21st century.
At first glance, these numbers probably do not seem threatening. After all, temperatures typically change a few tens of degrees whenever a storm front moves through. Such temperature changes, however, represent day-to-day regional fluctuations. When surface temperatures are averaged over the entire globe for extended periods of time, it turns out that the average is remarkably stable. Not since the end of the last ice age 20,000 years ago, when Earth warmed about 5°C, has the average surface temperature changed as dramatically as the 2°C to 6°C change that scientists are predicting for the next century.
Scientists predict the range of temperature increase by running different scenarios through climate models. Because scientists can’t say how human society may change over the next century, or how certain aspects of the climate system (such as clouds) will respond to global warming, they give a range of temperature estimates. The higher estimates are made on the assumption that the entire world will continue to use more and more fossil fuel per capita. The lower estimates come from best-case scenarios in which environmentally friendly technologies such as fuel cells and solar panels replace much of today’s fossil fuel combustion. After inputting estimates for future greenhouse gas emissions, scientists run the models forward into many possible futures to arrive at the range of estimates provided in the IPCC report. The estimates are being used to predict how rising temperatures will affect both people and natural ecosystems. The severity of environmental change will depend on how much the Earth’s surface warms over the next century.
Potential Effects of Global Warming
The most obvious impact of global warming will be changes in both average and extreme temperature and precipitation, but warming will also enhance coastal erosion, lengthen the growing season, melt ice caps and glaciers, and alter the range of some infectious diseases, among other things.
For most places, global warming will result in more hot days and fewer cool days, with the greatest warming happening over land. Longer, more intense heat waves will become more frequent. High latitudes and generally wet places will tend to receive more rainfall, while tropical regions and generally dry places will probably receive less rain. Increases in rainfall will come in the form of bigger, wetter storms, rather than in the form of more rainy days. In between those larger storms will be longer periods of light or no rain, so the frequency of drought will increase. Hurricanes will likely increase in intensity due to warmer ocean surface temperatures.
The weather isn’t the only thing global warming will impact: rising sea levels will erode coasts and cause more frequent coastal flooding. The problem is serious because as much as 10 percent of the world’s population lives in coastal areas less than 10 meters (about 30 feet) above sea level. The IPCC estimates that sea levels will rise between 0.18 and 0.59 meters (0.59 to 1.9 feet) by 2099 because of expanding sea water and melting mountain glaciers.
These estimates of sea level rise may be low, however, because they do not account for changes in the rate of melt from the world’s major ice sheets. As temperatures rise, ice will melt more quickly. New satellite measurements reveal that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are shedding about 125 billion tons of ice per year—enough to raise sea levels by 0.35 millimeters (0.01 inches) per year. If the melting were to accelerate, the rise in sea level could be significantly higher. For instance, the last time global temperatures were a degree or so warmer than today, sea levels were about 6 meters (20 feet) higher, with the water mainly coming from the melting of the Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheets. Neither ice sheet is likely to disappear before 2100, but there is the danger that global warming could initiate massive losses from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets that will continue or even accelerate over future centuries.
Global warming is also putting pressure on ecosystems, the plants and animals that co-exist in a particular climate. Warmer temperatures have already shifted the growing season in many parts of the globe. Spring is coming earlier, and that means that migrating animals have to start earlier to follow food sources. And since the growing season is longer, plants need more water to keep growing or they will dry out, increasing the risk of fires. Shorter, milder winters fail to kill insects, increasing the risk that an infestation will destroy an ecosystem. As the growing season progresses, maximum daily temperatures increase, sometimes beyond the tolerance of the plant or animal. To survive the climbing temperatures, both marine and land-based plants and animals have started to migrate towards the poles. Those species that cannot migrate or adapt face extinction. The IPCC estimates that 20-30 percent of plant and animal species will be at risk of extinction if temperatures climb more than 1.5° to 2.5°C.
The people who will be hardest hit will be residents of poorer countries who do not have the resources to fend off changes in climate. As tropical temperature zones expand, the reach of some infectious diseases like malaria will change. More intense rains and hurricanes, rising sea levels, and fast-melting mountain glaciers will lead to more severe flooding. Hotter summers and more frequent fires will lead to more cases of heat stroke and deaths, and to higher levels of near-surface ozone and smoke, which would cause more ‘code red’ air quality days. Intense droughts could lead to an increase in malnutrition. On a longer time scale, fresh water will become scarcer during the summer as mountain glaciers disappear, particularly in Asia and parts of North America. On the flip side, warmer winters will lead to fewer cold-related deaths, and the longer growing season could increase food production in some temperate areas.
Ultimately, global warming will impact life on Earth in many ways, but the extent of the change is up to us. Scientists have shown that human emissions of greenhouse gases are pushing global temperatures up, and many aspects of climate are responding to the warming in the way that scientists predicted they would. Ecosystems across the globe are already affected and surprising changes have already taken place. Polar ice caps are melting, plants and animals are migrating, tropical rain is shifting, and droughts are becoming more widespread and frequent. Since greenhouse gases are long-lived, the planet will continue to warm and changes will continue to happen, but the degree to which global warming changes life on Earth depends on our decisions.
References:
Arctic Council. (2004). Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Report.Accessed March 22, 2007.
Cazenave, A. (2006). How fast are the ice sheets melting?Science, 314, 1251-1252.
Dessler, A. (August 6, 2006). Is today’s warming man-made?Science and Politics of Global Climate Change. Accessed April 23, 2007.
Dyurgerov, M., and Meier, M. (2005). Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: A 2004 snapshot (Occasional Paper 58). Boulder, CO: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado.
Emanuel, K. (2005). Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Foucal, P., Frölich, C., Spruit, H., and Wigley, T. (2006). Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth’s climate. Nature,443, 161-166. doi:10.1038/nature05072.
Hansen, J., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., Willis, J., Del Genio, A., Koch, D., Lacis, A., Lo, K., Menon, S., Novakov, T., Perlwitz, J., Russell, G., Schmidt, G. A., and Tausnev, N. (2005) Earth’s energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science,308, 1431-1435.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers, A Report of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Summary for Policymakers, A Report of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Media Advisory: IPCC adopts major assessment of climate change science. Accessed March 29, 2007.
Joint Science Academies. (2005). Joint Science Academies’ Statement: Global Response to Climate Change. June 2005.
Kiehl, J. T., and Trenberth. K. E. (1997). Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, 197-208.
Lau, K. M., and Wu, H. T. (2007). Detecting trends in tropical rainfall characteristics, 1979-2003. International Journal of Climatology, 27, doi:10.1002/joc.1454.
Luthcke, S. B., Zwally, H. J., Abdalati, W., Rowlands, D. D., Ray, R. D., Nerem, R. S., Lemoine, F. G., McCarthy, J. J., and Chinn, D. S. (2006). Recent Greenland ice mass loss by drainage system from satellite gravity observations. Science, 314, 1286-1289.
McGranahan, G., Balk, D., and Anderson, B. (2007). The rising tide: Assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environment & Urbanization, 19(1). International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).
Sabine, C. L., Feely, R. A., Gruber, N., Key, R. M., Lee, K., Bullister, J. L., Wanninkhof, R., Wong, C. S., Wallace, D. W. R., Tilbrook, B., Millero, F. J., Peng, T. H., Kozyr, A., Ono, T., Rios A. F. (2004). The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2. Science, 305, 367-371.
Shepherd, A., and Wingham, D. (2007). Recent sea-level contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets.Science, 315, 1529-1532.
U.S. Climate Change Science Program. (2006). Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere. Accessed April 13, 2007.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2007). Climate Change.Accessed March 22, 2007.
Velicogna, I., and Wahr, J. (2006). Measurements of time-variable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica. Science, 311, 1754-1756.
Weir, J. (2002, April 8). Global Warming. Earth Observatory. Accessed April 13, 2007.
Global warmth begins with sunlight. When light from the Sun reaches the Earth, roughly 30 percent of it is reflected back into space by clouds, atmospheric particles, reflective ground surfaces, and even ocean surf. The remaining 70 percent of the light is absorbed by the land, air, and oceans, heating our planet’s surface and atmosphere and making life on Earth possible. Solar energy does not stay bound up in Earth’s environment forever. Instead, as the rocks, the air, and the sea warm, they emit thermal radiation, or infrared heat. Much of this thermal radiation travels directly out to space, allowing Earth to cool.
Some of this outgoing radiation, however, is re-absorbed by water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases in the atmosphere (called greenhouse gases because of their heat-trapping capacity) and is then re-radiated back toward the Earth’s surface. On the whole, this re-absorption process is good. If there were no greenhouse gases or clouds in the atmosphere, the Earth’s average surface temperature would be a very chilly -18°C (0°F) instead of the comfortable 15°C (59°F) that it is today.
What has scientists concerned now is that over the past 250 years humans have been artificially raising the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at an ever-increasing rate. By 2004, humans were pumping out over 8 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year. Some of it was absorbed by “sinks” like forests or the ocean, and the rest accumulated in the atmosphere. We produce millions of pounds of methane by allowing our trash to decompose in landfills and by breeding large herds of methane-belching cattle. Nitrogen-based fertilizers and other soil management practices lead to the release of nitrous oxide into the atmosphere.
Once these greenhouse gases get into the atmosphere, they stay there for decades or longer. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), since the industrial revolution began in about 1750, carbon dioxide levels have increased 35 percent and methane levels have increased 148 percent. Paleoclimate readings taken from ice cores and fossil records show that these gases, two of the most abundant greenhouse gases, are at their highest levels in at least the past 650,000 years. Scientists have very high confidence (a phrase the IPCC translates to “greater than 90 percent certainty”) that the increased concentrations of greenhouse gases have made it more difficult for thermal radiation to leave the Earth, and as a result, Earth has warmed.
Evidence for Global Warming
Recent observations of warming support the theory that greenhouse gases are warming the world. Over the last century, the planet has experienced the largest increase in surface temperature in 1,300 years. The average surface temperature of the Earth rose 0.6 to 0.9 degrees Celsius (1.08°F to 1.62°F) between 1906 and 2006, and the rate of temperature increase nearly doubled in the last 50 years. Worldwide measurements of sea level show a rise of about 0.17 meters (0.56 feet) during the twentieth century. The world’s glaciers have steadily receded, and Arctic sea ice extent has steadily shrunk by 2.7 percent per decade since 1978.
ven if greenhouse gas concentrations stabilized today, the planet would continue to warm by about 0.6°C over the next century because it takes years for Earth to fully react to increases in greenhouse gases. As Earth has warmed, much of the excess energy has gone into heating the upper layers of the ocean. Scientists suspect that currents have transported some of this excess heat from surface waters down deep, removing it from the surface of our planet. Once the lower layers of the ocean have warmed, the excess heat in the upper layers will no longer be drawn down, and Earth will warm about 0.6°C (1° F).
But how do scientists know global warming is caused by humans and that the observed warming isn’t a natural variation in Earth’s climate? Scientists use three closely connected methods to understand changes in Earth’s climate. They look at records of Earth’s past climates to see how and why climate changed in the past, they build computer models that allow them to see how the climate works, and they closely monitor Earth’s current vital signs with an array of instruments ranging from space-based satellites to deep sea thermometers. Records of past climate change reveal the natural events—such as volcanic eruptions and solar activity—that influenced climate throughout Earth’s history. Today, scientists monitor those same natural events as well as human-released greenhouse gases and use computer models to determine how each influences Earth’s climate.
Reconstructing Past Climate Change
Like detectives at a crime scene, scientists reconstruct past climate changes by looking for evidence left in things like glacial ice, ocean sediments, rocks, and trees. For example, glacial ice traps tiny samples of Earth’s atmosphere, giving scientists a record of greenhouse gases that stretches back more than 650,000 years, and the chemical make-up of the ice provides clues to the average global temperature. From these and other records, scientists have built a record of Earth’s past climates, or “paleoclimates.” Paleoclimatology allowed scientists to show that climate changes in the past have been triggered by variations in Earth’s orbit, solar variation, volcanic eruptions, and greenhouse gases.
Building a Climate Model
Next, to understand how sunlight, air, water, and land come together to create Earth’s climate, scientists build climate models—computer simulations of the climate system. Climate models include the fundamental laws of physics—conservation of energy, mass, and momentum—as well as dozens of factors that influence Earth’s climate. Though the models are complicated, rigorous tests with real-world data hone them into robust tools that allow scientists to experiment with the climate in a way not otherwise possible. For example, when scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA’s division spearheading climate modeling efforts, put measurements of volcanic particles from Mount Pinatubo’s 1991 eruption into their climate models well after the event, the models reported that Earth would have cooled by around 0.5°C a year or so later. The prediction matched cooling that had been observed around the globe after the eruption.
As the models reconstruct events that match the climate record, researchers gain confidence that the models are accurately duplicating the complex interactions that drive Earth’s climate. Scientists then experiment with the models to gain insight into what is driving climate change. By experimenting with the models—removing greenhouse gases emitted by the burning of fossil fuels or changing the intensity of the Sun to see how each influences the climate— scientists can use the models to explain Earth’s current climate and predict its future climate. So far, the only way scientists can get the models to match the rise in temperature seen over the past century is to include the greenhouse gases that humans have put into the atmosphere. This means that, according to the models, humans are responsible for most of the warming observed during the second half of the twentieth century.
But why do scientists trust results from climate models when models seem to have so much trouble forecasting the weather? It turns out that trends are easier to predict than specific events. Weather is a short-term, small-scale set of measurements of environmental conditions, while climate is the average of those conditions over a large area for a long time. The difference between predicting weather and climate is similar to the difference between predicting when a particular person will die versus calculating the average life span of an entire population. Given the large number of variables that influence conditions in Earth’s lower atmosphere, and given that chaos also plays a larger role on shorter and smaller scales of time and space, weather is much harder to predict than the averages that make up climate.
However, the longer the time scale, the harder it becomes to predict climate. Scientists understand how certain processes that drive Earth’s climate work now, and so they can accurately predict how events like Pinatubo’s eruption will cool the globe’s average temperature. But they don’t understand how every aspect of the climate system will change as the planet warms. Feedback loops—in which change in one part of the climate system produces change in another part—make climate harder to forecast as scientists look farther into the future. For example, what will happen to clouds as Earth warms? Will high-flying, heat-absorbing clouds that would cause additional heating become more frequent than dense, sunlight-blocking clouds? Will changes be regional or global, and how will they affect global climate? As of now, scientists can’t answer these questions, and the uncertainties mean that global climate models provide a range of predictions instead of a highly detailed forecast
Observing Global Warming
Climate models and paleoclimate information tell scientists what kinds of symptoms to look for when diagnosing global warming. Ocean temperatures and acidity should rise as the oceans soak up more heat and carbon dioxide. Global temperatures are predicted to increase, with the largest temperature increases over land and at the poles. Glaciers and sea ice will melt and sea levels will rise. Like a patient in a hospital, Earth is closely monitored for these symptoms by a fleet of satellites and surface instruments. NASA satellites record a host of vital signs including atmospheric aerosols (particles from things like factories, fires, or erupting volcanoes), atmospheric gases, energy from Earth’s surface and the Sun, ocean surface temperatures, global sea levels, the extent of ice sheets, glaciers and sea ice, plant growth, rainfall, cloud structure, and more. On the ground, networks of weather stations maintain temperature and rainfall records, and buoys measure deep ocean temperatures.
Along with paleoclimate data, these sources reveal that the planet has been warming for at least the last 400 years, and possibly the last 1000 years. As of now, warming after 1950 cannot be explained without accounting for greenhouse gases; natural influences such as volcanic eruptions or changes in the Sun’s output cannot account for the observed temperatures changes.
Occasional violent volcanic eruptions, such as Mt. Pinatubo, pump gases like sulfur dioxide and aerosols high into the atmosphere where they can linger for more than a year, reflecting sunlight and shading Earth’s surface. The cooling influence of this aerosol “shade” is greater than the warming influence of the volcanoes’ greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore such eruptions cannot account for the recent warming trend.
An increase in solar output also falls short of explaining recent warming. NASA satellites have been measuring the Sun’s output since 1978, and while the Sun’s activity has varied a little, the observed changes were not large enough to account for the warming recorded during the same period. Climate simulations of global temperature changes based only on solar variability and volcanic aerosols since 1750—omitting greenhouse gases— are able to fit the record of global temperatures only up until about 1950.
he only viable explanation for warming after 1950 is an increase in greenhouse gases. It is well established theoretically why carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases should heat the planet, and observations show that they have.
Predicting Future Warming
As the world consumes ever more fossil fuel energy, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise, and Earth’s average surface temperature will rise with them. Based on plausible emission scenarios, the IPCC estimates that average surface temperatures could rise between 2°C and 6°C by the end of the 21st century.
At first glance, these numbers probably do not seem threatening. After all, temperatures typically change a few tens of degrees whenever a storm front moves through. Such temperature changes, however, represent day-to-day regional fluctuations. When surface temperatures are averaged over the entire globe for extended periods of time, it turns out that the average is remarkably stable. Not since the end of the last ice age 20,000 years ago, when Earth warmed about 5°C, has the average surface temperature changed as dramatically as the 2°C to 6°C change that scientists are predicting for the next century.
Scientists predict the range of temperature increase by running different scenarios through climate models. Because scientists can’t say how human society may change over the next century, or how certain aspects of the climate system (such as clouds) will respond to global warming, they give a range of temperature estimates. The higher estimates are made on the assumption that the entire world will continue to use more and more fossil fuel per capita. The lower estimates come from best-case scenarios in which environmentally friendly technologies such as fuel cells and solar panels replace much of today’s fossil fuel combustion. After inputting estimates for future greenhouse gas emissions, scientists run the models forward into many possible futures to arrive at the range of estimates provided in the IPCC report. The estimates are being used to predict how rising temperatures will affect both people and natural ecosystems. The severity of environmental change will depend on how much the Earth’s surface warms over the next century.
Potential Effects of Global Warming
The most obvious impact of global warming will be changes in both average and extreme temperature and precipitation, but warming will also enhance coastal erosion, lengthen the growing season, melt ice caps and glaciers, and alter the range of some infectious diseases, among other things.
For most places, global warming will result in more hot days and fewer cool days, with the greatest warming happening over land. Longer, more intense heat waves will become more frequent. High latitudes and generally wet places will tend to receive more rainfall, while tropical regions and generally dry places will probably receive less rain. Increases in rainfall will come in the form of bigger, wetter storms, rather than in the form of more rainy days. In between those larger storms will be longer periods of light or no rain, so the frequency of drought will increase. Hurricanes will likely increase in intensity due to warmer ocean surface temperatures.
The weather isn’t the only thing global warming will impact: rising sea levels will erode coasts and cause more frequent coastal flooding. The problem is serious because as much as 10 percent of the world’s population lives in coastal areas less than 10 meters (about 30 feet) above sea level. The IPCC estimates that sea levels will rise between 0.18 and 0.59 meters (0.59 to 1.9 feet) by 2099 because of expanding sea water and melting mountain glaciers.
These estimates of sea level rise may be low, however, because they do not account for changes in the rate of melt from the world’s major ice sheets. As temperatures rise, ice will melt more quickly. New satellite measurements reveal that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are shedding about 125 billion tons of ice per year—enough to raise sea levels by 0.35 millimeters (0.01 inches) per year. If the melting were to accelerate, the rise in sea level could be significantly higher. For instance, the last time global temperatures were a degree or so warmer than today, sea levels were about 6 meters (20 feet) higher, with the water mainly coming from the melting of the Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheets. Neither ice sheet is likely to disappear before 2100, but there is the danger that global warming could initiate massive losses from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets that will continue or even accelerate over future centuries.
Global warming is also putting pressure on ecosystems, the plants and animals that co-exist in a particular climate. Warmer temperatures have already shifted the growing season in many parts of the globe. Spring is coming earlier, and that means that migrating animals have to start earlier to follow food sources. And since the growing season is longer, plants need more water to keep growing or they will dry out, increasing the risk of fires. Shorter, milder winters fail to kill insects, increasing the risk that an infestation will destroy an ecosystem. As the growing season progresses, maximum daily temperatures increase, sometimes beyond the tolerance of the plant or animal. To survive the climbing temperatures, both marine and land-based plants and animals have started to migrate towards the poles. Those species that cannot migrate or adapt face extinction. The IPCC estimates that 20-30 percent of plant and animal species will be at risk of extinction if temperatures climb more than 1.5° to 2.5°C.
The people who will be hardest hit will be residents of poorer countries who do not have the resources to fend off changes in climate. As tropical temperature zones expand, the reach of some infectious diseases like malaria will change. More intense rains and hurricanes, rising sea levels, and fast-melting mountain glaciers will lead to more severe flooding. Hotter summers and more frequent fires will lead to more cases of heat stroke and deaths, and to higher levels of near-surface ozone and smoke, which would cause more ‘code red’ air quality days. Intense droughts could lead to an increase in malnutrition. On a longer time scale, fresh water will become scarcer during the summer as mountain glaciers disappear, particularly in Asia and parts of North America. On the flip side, warmer winters will lead to fewer cold-related deaths, and the longer growing season could increase food production in some temperate areas.
Ultimately, global warming will impact life on Earth in many ways, but the extent of the change is up to us. Scientists have shown that human emissions of greenhouse gases are pushing global temperatures up, and many aspects of climate are responding to the warming in the way that scientists predicted they would. Ecosystems across the globe are already affected and surprising changes have already taken place. Polar ice caps are melting, plants and animals are migrating, tropical rain is shifting, and droughts are becoming more widespread and frequent. Since greenhouse gases are long-lived, the planet will continue to warm and changes will continue to happen, but the degree to which global warming changes life on Earth depends on our decisions.
References:
Arctic Council. (2004). Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Report.Accessed March 22, 2007.
Cazenave, A. (2006). How fast are the ice sheets melting?Science, 314, 1251-1252.
Dessler, A. (August 6, 2006). Is today’s warming man-made?Science and Politics of Global Climate Change. Accessed April 23, 2007.
Dyurgerov, M., and Meier, M. (2005). Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: A 2004 snapshot (Occasional Paper 58). Boulder, CO: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado.
Emanuel, K. (2005). Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Foucal, P., Frölich, C., Spruit, H., and Wigley, T. (2006). Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth’s climate. Nature,443, 161-166. doi:10.1038/nature05072.
Hansen, J., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., Willis, J., Del Genio, A., Koch, D., Lacis, A., Lo, K., Menon, S., Novakov, T., Perlwitz, J., Russell, G., Schmidt, G. A., and Tausnev, N. (2005) Earth’s energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science,308, 1431-1435.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers, A Report of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Summary for Policymakers, A Report of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Media Advisory: IPCC adopts major assessment of climate change science. Accessed March 29, 2007.
Joint Science Academies. (2005). Joint Science Academies’ Statement: Global Response to Climate Change. June 2005.
Kiehl, J. T., and Trenberth. K. E. (1997). Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, 197-208.
Lau, K. M., and Wu, H. T. (2007). Detecting trends in tropical rainfall characteristics, 1979-2003. International Journal of Climatology, 27, doi:10.1002/joc.1454.
Luthcke, S. B., Zwally, H. J., Abdalati, W., Rowlands, D. D., Ray, R. D., Nerem, R. S., Lemoine, F. G., McCarthy, J. J., and Chinn, D. S. (2006). Recent Greenland ice mass loss by drainage system from satellite gravity observations. Science, 314, 1286-1289.
McGranahan, G., Balk, D., and Anderson, B. (2007). The rising tide: Assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environment & Urbanization, 19(1). International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).
Sabine, C. L., Feely, R. A., Gruber, N., Key, R. M., Lee, K., Bullister, J. L., Wanninkhof, R., Wong, C. S., Wallace, D. W. R., Tilbrook, B., Millero, F. J., Peng, T. H., Kozyr, A., Ono, T., Rios A. F. (2004). The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2. Science, 305, 367-371.
Shepherd, A., and Wingham, D. (2007). Recent sea-level contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets.Science, 315, 1529-1532.
U.S. Climate Change Science Program. (2006). Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere. Accessed April 13, 2007.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2007). Climate Change.Accessed March 22, 2007.
Velicogna, I., and Wahr, J. (2006). Measurements of time-variable gravity show mass loss in Antarctica. Science, 311, 1754-1756.
Weir, J. (2002, April 8). Global Warming. Earth Observatory. Accessed April 13, 2007.
World Weather Watch
World Weather Watch
Current space-based component of the Global observation system
In order to improve weather forecasting, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) promotes the the World Weather Watch (WWW) program that modernizes the meteorological services of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) by utilizing the latest results of science and technology under the cooperation of the WMO member countries. The main purpose of the WWW program is to observe weather around the world uniformly. Meteorological satellites that have a capability to observe a wide range of the earth from space are exactly suitable for this role.
The combination of geostationary and polar orbiting meteorological satellites is one of the most important parts of the Global Observation System of the WWW program.
MTSAT takes an indispensable part of the Global Observing System as shown in the above figure and makes a great contribution to the meteorological services of not only Japan but also the world.
DCS and DCPs
Introduction
The Data Collection System (DCS) is a name of the system for collection and relaying of data by earth-based observing equipments (Data Collection Platforms; DCPs) within the communication range of a geostationary satellite as MTSAT.
A DCP is an electronic device used to collect observations and measurements of parameters of oceans, solid earth and atmosphere such as temperature, pressure and tide level. DCPs within the MTSAT communication range encode and transmit their observation data to MTSAT. MTSAT relays the data to CDAS. Then CDAS demodulates the data and sends them to MSC where the data are processed. Finally, the data are transmitted back to the operators of DCPs and users via the Global Telecommunication System (GTS).
In addition to the function supporting DCPs, the MTSAT DCS supports exchange of information related earthquake. MTSAT collects seismic intensity data measured by earthquake observing sites all over Japan. Besides, the MTSAT DCS supports dissemination of tsunami earthquake emergency information over the MTSAT communication range.
IDCS and RDCS
DCS can be categorized into two systems, the International DCS (IDCS) and the Regional DCS (RDCS). IDCS is designed to support ship DCPs, which travel beyond the communication range of MTSAT and get into those of other geostationary meteorological satellites. RDCS is designed to support fixed DCPs such as automated remote weather stations and tide/tsunami gauges, and also ship DCPs which moving range do not exceed the communication range of MTSAT.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
5 November 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.
During October 2009, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Figs. 1 & 2). The Niño-3.4 index increased nearly a degree with the most recent weekly value at +1.5°C (Fig. 2). Above-average subsurface temperature anomalies increased across a large region of the central and east-central Pacific, with anomalies ranging between +1 to +5°C by the end of the month (Fig. 3). Consistent with this warming, subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average departures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 4) also increased during the month. In addition, low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies strengthened over much of the equatorial Pacific. The pattern of tropical convection also remained consistent with El Niño, with enhanced convection over the west-central Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strengthening El Niño.
There continues to be disagreement among the models on the eventual strength of El Niño, but the majority indicate that the three-month average Niño-3.4 SST index value will range between +1.0°C and +1.5°C during the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 5). Consistent with the historical evolution of El Niño, a peak in SST anomalies is expected sometime during November-January. At this time, there is a high degree of uncertainty over how long this event will persist. Most of the models suggest that this event will last through March-May 2010, although the most likely outcome is that El Niño will peak at least at moderate strength (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Texas, and California, with below-average precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall is most likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest, while below-average temperatures are expected for the southeastern states.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 December 2009. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304
Figure 1. Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (°C) for the four-week period 4 October 2009 - 31 October 2009. Anomalies are computed with respect to the 1971-2000 base period weekly means (Xue et al. 2003, J. Climate, 16, 1601-1612).
Figure 2. Time series of area-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (°C) in the Niño regions [Niño-1+2 (0°-10°S, 90°W-80°W), Niño 3 (5°N-5°S, 150°W-90°W), Niño-3.4 (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W), Niño-4 (150ºW-160ºE and 5ºN-5ºS)]. SST anomalies are departures from the 1971-2000 base period weekly means (Xue et al. 2003, J. Climate, 16, 1601-1612).
Figure 3. Depth-longitude section of equatorial Pacific upper-ocean (0-300m) temperature anomalies (°C) centered on the week of 25 October 2009. The anomalies are averaged between 5°N-5°S. Anomalies are departures from the 1982-2004 base period pentad means.
Figure 4. Area-averaged upper-ocean heat content anomalies (°C) in the equatorial Pacific (5°N-5°S, 180º-100ºW). Heat content anomalies are computed as departures from the 1982-2004 base period pentad means.
Figure 5. Forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W). Figure courtesy of the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society. Figure updated 15 October 2009.
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
5 November 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.
During October 2009, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Figs. 1 & 2). The Niño-3.4 index increased nearly a degree with the most recent weekly value at +1.5°C (Fig. 2). Above-average subsurface temperature anomalies increased across a large region of the central and east-central Pacific, with anomalies ranging between +1 to +5°C by the end of the month (Fig. 3). Consistent with this warming, subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average departures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 4) also increased during the month. In addition, low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies strengthened over much of the equatorial Pacific. The pattern of tropical convection also remained consistent with El Niño, with enhanced convection over the west-central Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strengthening El Niño.
There continues to be disagreement among the models on the eventual strength of El Niño, but the majority indicate that the three-month average Niño-3.4 SST index value will range between +1.0°C and +1.5°C during the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 5). Consistent with the historical evolution of El Niño, a peak in SST anomalies is expected sometime during November-January. At this time, there is a high degree of uncertainty over how long this event will persist. Most of the models suggest that this event will last through March-May 2010, although the most likely outcome is that El Niño will peak at least at moderate strength (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Texas, and California, with below-average precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall is most likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest, while below-average temperatures are expected for the southeastern states.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 December 2009. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304
Figure 1. Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (°C) for the four-week period 4 October 2009 - 31 October 2009. Anomalies are computed with respect to the 1971-2000 base period weekly means (Xue et al. 2003, J. Climate, 16, 1601-1612).
Figure 2. Time series of area-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (°C) in the Niño regions [Niño-1+2 (0°-10°S, 90°W-80°W), Niño 3 (5°N-5°S, 150°W-90°W), Niño-3.4 (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W), Niño-4 (150ºW-160ºE and 5ºN-5ºS)]. SST anomalies are departures from the 1971-2000 base period weekly means (Xue et al. 2003, J. Climate, 16, 1601-1612).
Figure 3. Depth-longitude section of equatorial Pacific upper-ocean (0-300m) temperature anomalies (°C) centered on the week of 25 October 2009. The anomalies are averaged between 5°N-5°S. Anomalies are departures from the 1982-2004 base period pentad means.
Figure 4. Area-averaged upper-ocean heat content anomalies (°C) in the equatorial Pacific (5°N-5°S, 180º-100ºW). Heat content anomalies are computed as departures from the 1982-2004 base period pentad means.
Figure 5. Forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W). Figure courtesy of the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society. Figure updated 15 October 2009.
Thursday, November 26, 2009
SENARAI GEMPABUMI TERKINI .. ADAKAH INI MENANDAKAN DUNIA SUDAH HAMPIR DENGAN KIAMAT
Kenapa Gempabumi berterusan berlaku setiap hari.
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( 0000 UTC = 08.00 Pagi Waktu Malaysia )
( 0600 UTC = 02.00 Petang Waktu Malaysia )
( 1200 UTC = 08.00 Malam Waktu Malaysia )
( 1800 UTC = 02.00 Pagi Waktu Malaysia )
Klik kanan open in new windows untuk besar imej
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